GDP growth
SEA is relatively less impacted by global economic trends
GDP growth in SEA is maintaining pace1
Report highlights
Walk through key highlights from the 2022 report in five minutes
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Navigating macroeconomic headwinds
Just as mobility in SEA returned to pre-pandemic levels, the SEA economy began to feel the impact of global macroeconomic headwinds
Consumer impact
Macro headwinds have cascading implications on SEA consumers
Reduced disposable income
Skyrocketing prices
Lower product availability
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Approaching $200B in rough seas
Digital economic growth continues, post COVID-driven acceleration
$200B in 2022
SEA's digital economy closes in on $200B GMV
SEA’s digital economy is expected to grow 20% YoY in 20222
Growth trajectories
Consumers' new post-pandemic behaviours determine the growth trajectories of digital sectors
E-commerce sustains its growth momentum, while food delivery returns to trendline after a 2-year spike3
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Prudence cloudstech investments
Tech investments in SEA have remained strong especially in early-stage startups, but are expected to slow in H2'22 as investors exercise caution
Top investment sector
Digital financial services overtakes e-commerce as SEA’s top investment sector
Digital financial services is on track to be stronger in 2022, with record funding of ~$4B in H14
Long-term confidence
Investors are confident in SEA’s long-term prospects and are spreading their bets
Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are most likely to attract more investors in the longer term5
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ESG and sustainability
Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations are regarded as important by 50% of VCs. Among the 3 dimensions, environmental and social sustainability matters to investors and consumers.
Carbon footprint
As the digital economy grows, so too will its carbon footprint
The digital economy is projected to produce 20M tonnes of CO2e by 2030
ESG
Investors can further embed ESG into investment processes to encourage adoption
~50% of VCs consider ESG an important area of focus when investing in 2022
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Towards a moresustainable digital economy
With nascent and underpenetrated markets, SEA's digital economy still contains sizeable headroom for growth
Next growth wave
Sustained growth is expected, with Vietnam and Philippines likely frontrunners in next growth wave
In most SEA countries, the digital economy is expected to grow 2X as fast as GDP between now and 20308
$1T GMV by 2030
SEA is still on course to reach between $600B - $1T GMV by 2030
Key enablers need to be established to sustain this growth9
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Notes and sources
e-Conomy SEA is a multi-year research programme launched by Google and Temasek in 2016. Bain & Company joined the programme as lead research partner in 2019. The research leverages primary research, Temasek insights, Bain analysis, Google Trends, expert interviews, and industry sources to shed light on the digital economy in Southeast Asia. The information included in this report is sourced as ‘Google, Temasek and Bain, e-Conomy SEA 2022’, unless otherwise specified.
The information in this report is provided on an ‘as is’ basis. This document was produced by Google, Temasek, Bain and other third parties involved as of the date of writing, and is subject to change. It has been prepared solely for information purposes over a limited period of time to provide a perspective on the market. It is not intended for investment purposes. Google internal data was not used in the development of this report. All financial analysis is derived or estimated by Bain analysis using both non-Google proprietary and publicly available information. Google has not supplied any additional data for financial analysis, nor does Google endorse any financial analysis made in the report. Where information has been obtained from third party sources and proprietary research, this is clearly referenced in the footnotes. Projected market and financial information, analyses, and conclusions contained in this report should not be construed as definitive forecasts or guarantees of future performance or results. Google, Temasek, Bain, their respective affiliates or any other third party involved make no representation or warranty, either express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information in the report, and shall not be liable for any loss arising from the use of this report.
All dollar amounts in this report are in USD.
Google commissioned Ipsos to run the e-Conomy SEA consumer survey. The research study was conducted in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Fieldwork in urban cities ran from 18/07/2022 - 06/08/2022 online via a 25-minute Computer Assisted Web Interview survey with a total of 4,995 respondents interviewed. Fieldwork in suburban cities ran from 29/07/2022 - 24/08/2022 via offline-recruit-to-online surveys with connected consumers, along with offline recruit via randomised (door-to-door) approach, with quota controls on demographics with a total of 2,059 respondents across Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Analysis was later done with the data weighted based on age, gender, region, monthly household income, and internet usage frequency for a better and fairer representation of the markets and region. Bain conducted interviews and a quantitative survey of SEA-focused Venture Capital investors in Q3 2022, n=30.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, World Bank, Bain analysis.
Notes: Excludes digital financial services and nascent sectors; CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate; GMV = Gross Merchandise Value. Source: Bain analysis.
Note: CAGR growth reflected for each sector is specific to the time period of 2022 to 2025.
Note: ‘Others’ in this chart include transport, digital media, leisure & travel, foodtech, B2B tech, transport, cleantech, agritech, etc. Source: Bain analysis.
Note: Q: How do you expect deal activity to change in the long term (2025-2030) for the following countries? Source: Bain, SEA Venture Capital investors survey, Q3 2022.
Notes: Online travel not included despite environmental footprint of air travel since online platforms facilitate bookings and do not emit material CO2e themselves. CO2e projections are calculated based on the Greenhouse Gas Protocol Scope 3. The Greenhouse Gas Protocol includes Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions. Scope 3 defined as: ‘Emissions coming from activities from assets not owned by the company, but indirectly impacts in its value chain’; Nascent sectors (e.g. Web3) not included given uncertainties around the technology and business model, MT CO2e = million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Source: Bain analysis.
Source: Bain, SEA Venture Capital Investors Survey, Q3 2022.
Note: Excludes DFS. Sources: Bain analysis, MTI (GDP data).
Notes: 2025 projection excludes DFS and nascent sectors; 2030 projection includes ballpark estimates for nascent sectors. Source: Bain analysis.